Evaluation and simulation prediction of fragmentation in farmland landscape in county-level regions of Anhui Province
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Architecture and Art,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230601,China;2.Laboratory of Digital Human Settlements Research,Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601,China;3.Institute (Group) of Design Co., Ltd., Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009,China;4.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101,China

Clc Number:

F323.211

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Farmland is the foundation for ensuring national food security. Evaluating and predicting the degree of fragmentation in farmland landscapes has significant value and importance for formulating policies of protecting farmland and optimizing the spatial layout of farmland. The county-level units in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2020 were used to study the situation and evolution trends of fragmentation in farmland landscapes. The characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and predictions of development in the future of farmland landscapes in Anhui Province were systematically analyzed based on big multi-source data with methods including land use change analysis models, landscape pattern indices, geographic detectors, and the PLUS model. The results showed that the total area of farmland in Anhui Province has continuously decreased since 2000, mainly being transformed into construction land. The fragmentation in farmland landscapes has continuously intensified under the interaction of multiple factors, with the average comprehensive index steadily increasing, and a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south. The results of the simulation prediction of changes in farmland in Anhui Province in 2030 showed that the degree of fragmentation in farmland landscapes will be improved only under the scenario of protection. It is indicated that Anhui Province needs to strictly implement the policy of protecting farmland in the future, achieve sustainable development of farmland resources in Anhui Province through macro-level regulation of balance between the land use and the occupation/compensation of farmland.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

张晓瑞,杨欣悦,李杰铭,王振波,王鑫,徐图. Evaluation and simulation prediction of fragmentation in farmland landscape in county-level regions of Anhui Province[J]. Jorunal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2026,45(1):200-212.

Copy
Related Videos

Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:May 30,2025
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: February 09,2026
  • Published:
Article QR Code