Patch-scale measurement based spatial identification and driving mechanism of population shrinkage in rural areas within counties in China
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College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

Clc Number:

TU982.5

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    Abstract:

    The differences in spatial patterns of population shrinkage in rural areas within counties and their influencing factors were analyzed to provide empirical evidence and scientific guidance for analyzing the relationship between population and land in rural areas within counties and promoting efficient and intensive use of resources. The precise geographic data including residential patches of rural settlements and LandScan - a high-resolution population distribution dataset- were used to innovatively construct a population shrinkage index. This index was used systematically to detect the dynamic changes in population density of rural areas in China at the patch scale from 2000 to 2020. The spatial patterns of population shrinkage in rural areas across 2 847 counties in China was comprehensively analyzed. The results showed that patches of population shrinkage were prominently concentrated in the Huaihe River Basin, with mild shrinkage mainly observed in rural areas in the western region and severe shrinkage in rural areas along the eastern coast. The population shrinkage in rural areas within counties had significant regional differences, forming a spatial pattern of “two belts and multiple agglomerations”. Counties (cities) with different administrative divisions exhibited differentiated characteristics of population shrinkage. Urbanization (UR), education service (EDU), and agricultural mechanization (ARG) were the three pivotal factors affecting the internal population shrinkage in rural areas within counties in China. The interplay between educational service and rural income had the strongest explanatory power.It will provide a robust empirical foundation and scientific direction for dissecting the population -land nexus within counties, refining the plans for rural settlement, and advocating for the efficient, intensive utilization of resources.

    Fig.1 Spatial distribution of shrinking rural number kernel densities at all levels in the country
    Fig.2 Distribution of total area of county population shrinkage patches in China
    Fig.3 Distribution of total area of population shrinkage at all levels of counties in China
    Fig.4 Distribution of area share of shrinkage patch types of county units in China
    Fig.5 National map of county-level rural shrinkage areas
    Fig.6 Spatial distribution(A) and spatial lacal clustering(B) of rural shrinkage Getis-Ord Gi* in Chinas counties
    Fig.7 Heatmap of the interaction of rural shrinkage drivers
    Table 1 Identification results of shrinking counties in rural China from 2000 to 2020
    Table 2 Shrinkage patch area zoning statistics for major county administrative units
    Table 3 Comparison of mean KMean values among major county-level administrative regions
    Table 4 Selection of detection indicators
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何青松,查莹莹. Patch-scale measurement based spatial identification and driving mechanism of population shrinkage in rural areas within counties in China[J]. Jorunal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2024,43(6):39-52.

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History
  • Received:June 16,2024
  • Online: January 07,2025
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