海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下城市景观系统脆弱性评估:以广州为例
作者:
作者单位:

华南农业大学林学与风景园林学院,广州 510642

作者简介:

陈崇贤,E-mail:chongxian@scau.edu.cn

通讯作者:

刘京一,E-mail:liujingyi@scau.edu.cn

中图分类号:

TU984

基金项目:

广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2021A1515010924);国家自然科学基金项目(52108051)


Vulnerability assessment of urban landscape systems under risk of sea level rise superimposed with storm surge: a case study of Guangzhou
Author:
Affiliation:

College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China

Fund Project:

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    摘要:

    为系统评估海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险对城市不同类型景观的影响,以珠三角沿海城市广州市为研究区域,基于该地区土地利用和社会经济等数据,构建“敏感性-适应性”脆弱性评估框架,针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100年)3个不同时期海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险情景下广州城市景观系统的脆弱性特征进行评估。结果显示:从淹没范围和经济损失来看,未来不同风险情景下受淹没面积最大的是农业景观、公园绿地与湿地景观,而经济损失最为严重的是工业景观和商业与公共服务景观。从整体脆弱性空间分布来看,近期景观脆弱性较高的区域主要集中在广州中部的荔湾区、白云区和黄浦区,到中期和远期阶段,广州中部的海珠区景观脆弱性风险逐渐加剧。从各类景观脆弱性空间分布来看,与交通景观、居住区景观等其他各类景观相比,近期农业景观脆弱性程度偏高的区域最多,主要集中在广州南部的番禺区和南沙区;到中期和远期阶段,各类景观的脆弱性风险都有不同程度的加剧,其中,公园绿地与湿地景观脆弱性程度变化较为显著。研究结果表明,未来可以根据不同景观系统的脆弱性程度和空间分布特征,通过提升防御性设施建设、实施适应性技术以及加强合理利用土地等应对策略来降低该地区的受灾风险。

    Abstract:

    In the context of global climate change and sea level rise, coastal disasters will have a significant impact on the landscape and socio-economic development of coastal cities. Guangzhou, a coastal city in the Pearl River Delta, was used to construct a “sensitivity adaptabilit” vulnerability assessment framework based on the land use and socio-economic data in the area. The vulnerability characteristics of urban landscape system in Guangzhou under three different scenarios of sea level rise superimposed with storm surge risk in the short-term (2030), the medium-term (2050) and the long-term (2100) were assessed. The results showed that the agricultural landscape, park green space, and wetland landscape had the largest inundation area under different risk scenarios in the future, while the industrial landscape and commercial and public service landscape had the most severe economic losses from the perspective of inundation scope and economic losses. The areas with high landscape vulnerability in the short-term were mainly concentrated in Liwan District, Baiyun District and Huangpu District in the central part of Guangzhou from the perspective of the overall spatial distribution of vulnerability. In the medium and long term, the risk of landscape vulnerability in Haizhu District in the central part of Guangzhou gradually increased. From the perspective of spatial distribution of various landscape vulnerability, the most vulnerable areas of agricultural landscape in the short-term are Panyu District and Nansha District in southern Guangzhou compared with other landscapes including the transportation landscape and residential landscape. In the mid-term and long-term stages, the vulnerability risks of various landscapes have increased to varying degrees, with significant changes in the vulnerability levels of park green spaces and wetland landscapes. This article systematically assessed the impact of sea level rise combined with storm surge on different types of urban landscapes in Guangzhou. It will provide decision-making reference for the risk management and prevention of coastal disasters in the future, and the construction of urban resilience in Guangzhou.

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引用本文

陈崇贤,方言,刘京一.海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下城市景观系统脆弱性评估:以广州为例[J].华中农业大学学报,2023,42(4):53-63

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-30
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