华中三省秋季连阴雨时空变化特征及风险分析
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-2010-04)和湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目(2013Y02)


Temporal,spatial feature and risk analysis of the autumn continuous raining in three provinces of Central China
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    在对华中三省历年秋季连阴雨灾害进行调查的基础上,采用新修订的秋季连阴雨判别标准和武汉区域气候中心气候灾害监测分析业务系统连阴雨程度评估标准,分析了不同程度秋季连阴雨的时空变化趋势;结合代表区域连阴雨过程灾损情况,从灾害风险的角度,探讨了秋季连阴雨灾害的高影响年份及高风险分布区,并针对较高风险区提出了相应的风险回避、风险转移等实施措施。结果表明:近50年来,华中三省秋季连阴雨以0.21次/10 a的速率显著减少,且越接近南部,减少趋势越明显。各地秋季连阴雨呈一致减少趋势,且西部减少速率大于东部,尤其是湖北西部和湖南西部局部地区减少趋势达显著水平。程度越重的连阴雨减少趋势越明显。风险分析法在区域秋季连阴雨灾害高影响年份和高风险区域评估方面适用性较好,高影响年份与实际灾情对应较好。河南西南部的栾川、西峡局部地区,湖北西部的房县、宜昌西部和恩施地区,湖南西部大部及东南部郴州等局部地区是秋季连阴雨高风险区。在湖北西南部、湖南西部大部和东南部这些风险等级较高的地区,可考虑采取相应的风险回避或风险转移措施。

    Abstract:

    By investigating autumn continuous raining disaster in past years in three provinces of Central China and using newly-revised discrimination standard and degree evaluation criteria in climate disaster monitor and analysis system of Wuhan Regional Climate Center,the paper analyses the temporal and spatial feature of autumn continuous raining.Meantime,in terms of disaster losses of autumn continuous raining in representative region,the high influence years and high risk areas are investigated from the angle of disaster risk and some corresponding measures such as risk avoidance and risk shifting et al are proposed for high risk areas.The results show that:during the recent fifty years,the autumn continuous raining in three provinces of Central China decreases significantly at 0.21 time per decade averagely,and the more decreasing trend is caused with closing to the southern.The autumn continuous raining in every area shows consistent decreasing trend,and it will decrease more quickly in the west than in the east of the area,especially the decreasing trend of the part area in the west of Hubei and Hunan reaches significant level.The decreasing trend of autumn continuous raining in heavier level becomes more obvious.The risk analysis method is better applied to the evaluation of high influence years and high risk areas of autumn continuous raining disaster in three provinces of Central China,and the high influence years matches well with actual disaster.The high risk area of autumn continuous raining includes the southwest part of Henan(such as Luanchuan,Xixia),the west of Hubei(such as Fangxian,the west of Yichang,the Enshi area),and the west most part and southeast part of Hunan(such as Chenzhou).Some corresponding measures such as risk avoidance and risk shifting et al are proposed for high risk areas.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

史瑞琴,李兰,温泉沛,刘敏.华中三省秋季连阴雨时空变化特征及风险分析[J].华中农业大学学报,2013,32(6):91-98

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-07
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: