太阳黑子周期与褐飞虱大发生年份的关系
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国家农业部公益性行业科研专项(200803003)


Relationship between sunspot cycle and outbreak years of Nilaparvata lugens (Stl)
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    摘要:

    根据1912-2006年东亚地区褐飞虱大发生年份、1959-2010年东南亚地区褐飞虱大发生年份的资料以及1880-2009年太阳黑子相对数资料,采用相关分析、相位分析、关键时分析及周期分析方法,探讨了太阳黑子周期与国内外褐飞虱大发生年份之间的关系。研究结果表明:当年东亚地区及东南亚地区褐飞虱大发生年份级别均与前17年的太阳黑子相对数之间的正相关性达到极显著水平(P<0.01);东亚地区及东南亚地区褐飞虱大发生年均主要处于太阳黑子活动周期的下降阶段;太阳黑子活动周期对东亚地区及东南亚地区褐飞虱大发生年份的影响均没有达到统计学上的显著水平(P>0.10);东亚地区褐飞虱大发生年份在局部上存在8-9年的周期性,东南亚地区褐飞虱大发生年份在局部上存在1-2年的周期性。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of the data of the outbreak years of Nilaparvata lugens (Stl) in eastern Asia during 1912-2006, the outbreak years of N.lugens in southeastern Asia during 1959-2010, and the relative number of sunspots from 1880 to 2009, by adopting the methods of correlation analysis, phase analysis, key time analysis and cycle analysis, this paper studied the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the outbreak years of N.lugens in Asia. The results showed that there was a very significant positive correlation between the outbreak year (grade) of N.lugens in both eastern Asia and southeastern Asia and the relative number of sunspots in the 17th year before that (P<0.01). The outbreak years of N.lugens in both eastern Asia and southeastern Asia appeared mostly at the declining stage of sunspot activity cycle. Sunspot activity cycle had no significant influence on the outbreak year of N.lugens in both eastern Asia area and southeastern Asia area (P>0.10). The periodicity of the outbreak of N.lugens is 8-9 years in some parts of eastern Asia, while it is 1-2 years in parts of southeastern Asia.

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黄荣华,舒 畅,姚英娟,丁 建,周 军.太阳黑子周期与褐飞虱大发生年份的关系[J].华中农业大学学报,2011,30(3):322-326

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  • 收稿日期:2010-07-07
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