数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调时空演变分析
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天津城建大学

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F49;F124.3;F207

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天津市科技计划项目


Space-temporal evolution analysis of coupling coordination between digital economy, low-carbon development and new urbanization
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    摘要:

    面对资源短缺和日益增长的碳排放量,如何改变传统发展模式,促进全社会绿色转型,是我国坚持绿色低碳循环发展道路亟待解决的重要问题。基于2010-2020年中国30个省级面板数据,构建指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型、耦合协调度模型和空间自相关模型,分析数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化三系统耦合协调度及其时空演变特征。研究表明:①2010-2020年间,三系统综合发展水平均有显著提升,从地区上呈现“东高西低”的空间分布特征;②三系统耦合协调度呈波动上升趋势,总体经历了“轻度失调→勉强协调”阶段,整体水平不高;③三系统在空间上表现为正向空间自相关性,相关性逐渐增强,空间分布向聚集状态演变;④高-高集聚类型主要分布在东南沿海及中部地区且呈现出显著的扩散态势,协调发展水平呈现“东南高西北低”态势。根据实证分析结果,针对数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调提出建议,以期为加强区域联动,补齐短板,促进绿色低碳循环发展提供参考。

    Abstract:

    In the face of resource shortage and increasing carbon emissions, how to change the traditional development model and promote the green transformation of the whole society is an important issue to be solved urgently in China to adhere to the green, low-carbon and circular development path. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020, this paper constructs an index system and uses the entropy weight TOPSIS model, coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation model to analyze the coupling coordination degree of digital economy, low-carbon development and new urbanization and its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the comprehensive development level of the three systems has significantly improved, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of "high in the east and low in the west"; (2) The coupling coordination degree of the three systems showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the overall level was not high after experiencing the stage of "mild imbalance → barely coordination"; (3) The spatial characteristics of the three systems are positive spatial autocorrelation, the correlation is gradually enhanced, and the spatial distribution changes to the aggregation state; (4) The high-high agglomeration type is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal and central areas and shows a significant diffusion trend, and the coordinated development level shows a "high southeast and low northwest" trend. Based on the empirical analysis results, suggestions are put forward for the coupling and coordination of digital economy, low-carbon development and new urbanization, in order to provide references for strengthening regional linkage, making up for weaknesses, and promoting green, low-carbon and circular development.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-08
  • 最后修改日期:2024-03-26
  • 录用日期:2024-04-01
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