数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调时空演变分析
作者:
作者单位:

天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津 300384

作者简介:

曹琳剑,E-mail:caolinjian@tju.edu.cn

通讯作者:

徐若琳,E-mail:x_wonderfulu@163.com

中图分类号:

F49;F124.3;F207

基金项目:

天津市科技计划项目(21ZLZKZF00380)


Coupling and coordination spatiotemporal evolution of digital economy, development with low-carbon, and new urbanization
Author:
Affiliation:

College of Economics and Management, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China

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    摘要:

    面对资源短缺和日益增长的碳排放量,为探究改变传统发展模式,优化全社会绿色转型,促进绿色低碳循环发展路径,本研究基于2010—2021年中国30个省级面板数据,构建指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution)模型、耦合协调度模型和空间自相关模型,分析数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化三系统耦合协调度及其时空演变特征。结果显示:2010—2021年间,三系统综合发展水平均有显著提升,从地区上呈现“东高西低”的空间分布特征;三系统耦合协调度呈波动上升趋势,总体经历了“勉强协调→基本协调”阶段,整体水平不高;三系统在空间上表现为正向空间自相关性,相关性逐渐增强,空间分布向聚集状态演变;高-高集聚类型主要分布在东南沿海及中部地区且呈现出显著的扩散态势,协调发展水平“东南高西北低”。根据实证分析结果,针对数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调提出建议,为加强区域联动,补齐短板,促进绿色低碳循环发展提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Changing the traditional model of development was studied to optimize the green transformation of the whole society and the path of promoting the development with green, low-carbon and recycle in the face of resource scarcity and increasing emissions of carbon. An indexes system was constructed based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021. The entropy weighted technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) model, coupling and coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation model, the coupling and coordination degree of digital economy were used to analyze the coupling and coordination degree and spatiotemporal evolution of the three systems including digital economy, development with low-carbon, and new urbanization. The results showed that the comprehensive development level of the three systems was significantly improved from 2010 to 2021, showing a spatial distribution characteristic of “high in the east and low in the west” from a regional perspective. The coupling and coordination degree of the three systems had a fluctuating upward trend, and the overall level went from barely coordination to basic coordination, with a low overall level. The three systems exhibited positive spatial autocorrelation in space, with the correlation gradually increasing and the spatial distribution evolving towards the state of aggregation. The high-high agglomeration type was mainly distributed in the southeastern coastal and central areas and had a significant diffusion trend, with a coordinated development level of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”. Suggestions are proposed for the coupling and coordination of digital economy, development with low-carbon, and new urbanization based on results of empirical analyses. It will provide reference for strengthening regional action in chain, filling the weak spots, and promoting the development with green, low-carbon, and recycle.

    图1 数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化的耦合作用机制Fig.1 The coupling mechanism of digital economy, low-carbon development and new urbanization
    图2 2010—2021年数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化综合评价指数Fig.2 Digital economy, low-carbon development and new urbanization comprehensive evaluation index,2010—2021
    图3 2010—2021年数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调度Fig.3 Degree of coupling coordination between digital economy, low-carbon development and new urbanization,2010—2021
    图4 2010—2021年数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调度LISA集聚图Fig.4 LISA of the coupling coordination degree of digital economy, low-carbon development and new urbanization,2010—2021
    图5 2010—2021年数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调度空间集聚特征Fig.5 Spatial agglomeration characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of digital economy,low-carbon development and new urbanization,2010—2021
    表 1 数字经济-低碳发展-新型城镇化系统耦合协调发展评价指标体系Table 1 Digital economy,low-carbon development,new urbanization system coupling coordinated development evaluation index system
    表 2 耦合协调度发展阶段和类型Table 2 Development stage and type of coupling coordination degree
    表 3 2010—2021年各省级行政区三系统耦合协调度及发展阶段Table 3 The coupling coordination degree and development stage of three systems in each province,2010—2021
    表 4 全局Moran’s I指数Table 4 Global Moran’s I index
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曹琳剑,徐若琳,朱媛媛,马金蕊,唐泽坤.数字经济、低碳发展与新型城镇化耦合协调时空演变分析[J].华中农业大学学报,2024,43(6):114-126

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