基于VAR模型的中国马铃薯产量波动影响因素分析
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财政部和农业农村部:国家现代农业产业技术体系专项(CARS-9)


VAR model-based analyses of factors affecting fluctuation of potato yield in China
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    摘要:

    为明确马铃薯产量波动影响因素及其作用机制,保持我国马铃薯产业平稳健康发展,本研究运用VAR模型对1982-2018年影响我国马铃薯产量波动的因素进行分析,揭示我国马铃薯生产影响机制,最后对合理引导我国马铃薯生产平稳发展提出相应对策建议。结果显示:(1)自然因素对产量波动多为负向影响,经济、科技和政策以正向影响为主;(2)自然、科技和市场因素对马铃薯产量波动的影响较大,科技进步与政策影响较为长远。研究认为应从制定适当生产引导政策、提升马铃薯生产效率水平、增强应对自然因素冲击能力、拓展多种马铃薯产品消费途径四个方面采取对策措施,稳定马铃薯生产。

    Abstract:

    Potato,as an industry that enriches the people in the central and western regions of China,plays an important role in increasing income of farmers and boosting the prosperity of the industry in the context of shifting "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" work to comprehensively facilitate the rural revitalization strategy in China. With the development of potato industry in China,the impact of its yield fluctuations on the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is increasing as well. To clarify the factors affecting the fluctuation of potato yield and to explore its mechanism is of great practical significance for maintaining the stable and healthy development of potato industry in China. The VAR model was used to analyze the factors affecting the fluctuation of potato yield in China from 1982 to 2018. The mechanism influencing potato production in China was revealed. The corresponding measures and advices for rationally guiding the stable development of potato production in China were proposed. The results showed that rainfall and other natural factors had mostly negative impact on the fluctuation of yield. The social and economic development characterized by urbanization and the level of per capita disposable income of farmers,and the scientific and technological progress and policy factors characterized by mechanical farming and irrigation area had mainly positive influences. Natural conditions,scientific and technological progress and market factors had a greater impact on fluctuations of potato yield,and technological progress and policies had a long-term impact on potato yield. It is recommended to respect the fluctuation rules of potato production and make appropriate policies of guiding production. Promoting the transformation of potato production to per unit yield through improving the efficiency level of potato production. The ability to resist the impact of natural factors,to monitor the natural weather and to warn the main production areas in advance should be strengthened. The steady and healthy development of the potato industry should be promoted by adopting measures in four respects including improving consumption capacity and expanding consumption channels for a variety of potato products.

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高明杰,鲁洪威,李婷婷,薄沁箐,罗其友.基于VAR模型的中国马铃薯产量波动影响因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报,2021,40(4):63-71

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  • 收稿日期:2021-04-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-07-22
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