The methods of calculating pathogenic day,influencing coefficients of pathogenic and fitness of flowering days,and continuous pathogenic days were firstly proposed by using probability and weighted mathematical statistics with data of developmental stages and daily meteorology of early rice in Hubei province.The disease indexes of six stations in Jingzhou,Huanggang and other regions during the period 1971-2009 were fitted by the model of disease indexes of early rice panicle blast based on the pathogenic days and influencing coefficients.The model fittings of disease index were compared with actual situation of early rice panicle blast in six stations to determine the threshold of four meteorological grades of disease indexes.The model for monitoring/forecasting meteorological grades of early rice panicle blast in Hubei province was finally constructed and validated by comparing the historical fact with results of monitoring and forecasting.Results showed that the model could well reflect the actual occurrence of early rice panicle blast.It can be used to monitor and forecast the early rice panicle blast in Hubei Province.