Page 84 - 《华中农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期

78 华 中 农 业 大 学 学 报 第 43 卷

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Exploration and application of meteorological forecasting model for
migration of Spodoptera frugiperda

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1
DENG Huanhuan ,YANG Junjie ,GUO Anhong ,WANG Chunzhi ,
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1
XIE Jiaxu ,ZHONG Min ,GUO Guangfen 1
1.Wuhan Regional Climate Center， Wuhan 430074， China；
2.The General Station of Plant Protection of Hubei Province， Wuhan 430071， China；
3.National Meteorological Center， Beijing 100081， China；
4.Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory， Wuhan 430074， China

Abstract A meteorological forecasting model for the migration of Spodoptera frugiperda was prelimi⁃
narily established based on the weather forecast platform and the medium-short term numerical forecast of
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） to accurately predict the migration
routes of pests and use weather forecasting technology to predict migratory pests. The atmospheric circula⁃
tion situation and low-level wind dynamic were used to accurately forecast the migration routes， migration
time including the first day of emergence and the day with a peak number and falling zone of Spodoptera
frugiperda. A detailed review of two typical forecasting cases of the migration of Spodoptera frugiperda in
2021 was conducted. The typical weather processes and meteorological factor fields of the migratory layer
of Spodoptera frugiperda， which migrated northward to Hubei Province in spring （first day of sighting）
and southward to Hubei Province in autumn （peak day） in 2021， were analyzed. The HYSPLIT route
model was used to simulate the backward routes of migration. The prediction conclusion was validated us⁃
ing data from monitoring Spodoptera frugiperda in the field and from monitoring lamp and migration
routes. The results showed that the forecasting conclusions of two typical prediction cases were in good
agreement with data from monitoring Spodoptera frugiperda in the field and from monitoring lamp， and the
scenario simulation of migration routes. The forecasting of the migration time， falling fields and routes was
basically correct， which verified the feasibility of using the weather forecast technologies to predict migrato⁃
ry pests.
Keywords migratory pests； Spodoptera frugiperda； numerical forecast； hybrid single-particle la⁃
grangian integrated trajectory model； migration routes； falling zone

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