Vulnerability assessment of urban landscape systems under sea level rise and storm surge risk: A case study of Guangzhou

College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture,South China Agricultural University

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The General Program of Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China

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    In the context of global climate change and sea level rise, coastal disasters will pose a great impact on coastal urban landscape and social economy. Taking Guangzhou, a coastal city in the Pearl River Delta, as the study area, based on the land use and socio-economic data, this study proposed the "sensitivities-adaptability" vulnerability assessment framework to assess the vulnerability characteristics of Guangzhou urban landscape systems under three different sea-level rise combined with storm surge risk scenarios: the short-term (2030), the medium-term (2050) and the long-term (2100). The results show that: 1) From the perspective of inundation range and economic loss, the agricultural landscape, park green space and wetland landscape will be the most inundated under different risk scenarios in the future, while the industrial landscape and commercial and public service landscape will suffer the most serious economic losses.2) From the perspective of the overall spatial distribution of vulnerability, the areas with high landscape vulnerability in the short-term were mainly concentrated in Liwan District, Baiyun District and Huangpu District in the central part of Guangzhou. In the medium-term and long-term, the landscape vulnerability risk in Haizhu District in the central part of Guangzhou gradually increased. 3) From the spatial distribution of various landscape vulnerability, compared to the transportation landscape, residential landscape, and other types of landscape, the areas with relatively high vulnerability of agricultural landscapes are the most in the short-term, mainly concentrated in Panyu District and Nansha District in southern Guangzhou. In the medium-term and the long-term, the vulnerability risks of various landscapes have increased to varying degrees, and the changes in the vulnerability of park green and wetland landscapes are more significant. This study systematically assessed the impact of sea level rise combined with storm surge on different types of urban landscape in Guangzhou, which can provide decision-making reference for the risk management and prevention of coastal disasters in the future and the construction of urban resilience in Guangzhou.

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  • Received:September 30,2022
  • Revised:December 01,2022
  • Adopted:December 02,2022
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