VAR model-based analyses of factors affecting fluctuation of potato yield in China
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    Abstract:

    Potato,as an industry that enriches the people in the central and western regions of China,plays an important role in increasing income of farmers and boosting the prosperity of the industry in the context of shifting "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" work to comprehensively facilitate the rural revitalization strategy in China. With the development of potato industry in China,the impact of its yield fluctuations on the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is increasing as well. To clarify the factors affecting the fluctuation of potato yield and to explore its mechanism is of great practical significance for maintaining the stable and healthy development of potato industry in China. The VAR model was used to analyze the factors affecting the fluctuation of potato yield in China from 1982 to 2018. The mechanism influencing potato production in China was revealed. The corresponding measures and advices for rationally guiding the stable development of potato production in China were proposed. The results showed that rainfall and other natural factors had mostly negative impact on the fluctuation of yield. The social and economic development characterized by urbanization and the level of per capita disposable income of farmers,and the scientific and technological progress and policy factors characterized by mechanical farming and irrigation area had mainly positive influences. Natural conditions,scientific and technological progress and market factors had a greater impact on fluctuations of potato yield,and technological progress and policies had a long-term impact on potato yield. It is recommended to respect the fluctuation rules of potato production and make appropriate policies of guiding production. Promoting the transformation of potato production to per unit yield through improving the efficiency level of potato production. The ability to resist the impact of natural factors,to monitor the natural weather and to warn the main production areas in advance should be strengthened. The steady and healthy development of the potato industry should be promoted by adopting measures in four respects including improving consumption capacity and expanding consumption channels for a variety of potato products.

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高明杰,鲁洪威,李婷婷,薄沁箐,罗其友. VAR model-based analyses of factors affecting fluctuation of potato yield in China[J]. Jorunal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2021,40(4):63-71.

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History
  • Received:April 22,2021
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 22,2021
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