农业保险排斥对农民收入的影响:基于倾向值匹配和异质性分析的研究
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1.农业农村部农村经济研究中心;2.农业农村部管理干部学院

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Effect from Exclusion of Agricultural Insurance on Farmers' Income in China:a Study based on PSM Method and Heterogeneity Analysis
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Research Center for Rural Economy, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

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    摘要:

    本文利用2015-2016年北方6省12县种植业保险的调研数据,系统考察了农业保险排斥对农民收入的影响。首先,本文采用OLS方法和Oaxaca-Blinder方法估计农业保险排斥对农民收入有显著负向影响,受排斥农户与未受排斥农户的农业收入差异为6%。进一步,本文利用倾向得分匹配法纠正可能存在的样本选择性偏误,所得结论依然稳健。考虑异质性后的实证研究结果表明,未受排斥的年轻农户和规模扩大型农户农业收入增长明显。此外,相较于高受灾农户,未受排斥的低受灾农户因为受灾和补偿概率较低,农业保费成为农业额外成本从而降低了收入。本文提出政策建议:持续推进政策性农业保险“提标、扩面、增品”,降低农村农业保险排斥,充分发挥农业保险在促进农民收入增长过程中的作用。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the impact of agricultural insurance exclusion on farmers' income was systematically investigated. The micro-level data in this paper were generated from a survey about agricultural insurance in 12 counties of 6 northern provinces in 2015. To begin with, Based on OLS and Oaxaca-Blinder strategy, we get conclusion that agricultural insurance exclusion has a significant negative impact on farmers' income, and the difference in agricultural income between excluded farmers and non-excluded farmers is 6%. Furthermore, the Propensity Score Matching method is adopted to correct the possible sample selectivity bias. The main above conclusion is still robust. We adopted sub-sample studies to deal with heterogeneity. The empirical result shows that the increase of agricultural income for young farms and expanded non-excluded farmers is obvious. In addition, compared with the farmers with higher risk of disaster, low affected farmers who are not excluded have a low probability of being affected and getting compensation. So agricultural premiums become additional agricultural costs and reduce their income. Therefore, policy implications have been generated.The government need to promote policy-based agricultural insurance by increasing compensation level, expanding scope and designing more insurance plan. By reducing the exclusion, agricultural insurance would play more significant rolde in promoting income of farmers.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-03-20
  • 最后修改日期:2020-05-31
  • 录用日期:2020-06-21
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