Nanjing university of Finance and Economics
In this paper, the panel data stochastic frontier model was used to calculate the input efficiency of fertilizers in China from 1998 to 2017, and the panel data multi-state model was used to predict and analyze the change trend of fertilizer input efficiency. It was found that the average fertilizer input efficiency in China was 0.70, which shares great potential for improvement. Moreover, the efficiency was higher in the central part than in the eastern part and higher in the eastern part than in the western part. There is no necessary relation between fertilizer input efficiency and fertilizer intensity. In terms of the composition of fertilizer input efficiency loss, the short-term efficiency loss is relatively low and the long-term efficiency loss is relatively high, which is the main cause of the overall low input efficiency of agricultural fertilizer in China. In spite of the irrational phenomenon of fertilizer input in agricultural production in China, which causes a lot of efficiency loss and input waste. The efficiency of fertilizer input shows no improvement in terms of the time trend of efficiency change and the conversion probability of efficiency state, and the efficiency loss is characterized by strong viscosity. Therefore, to improve the input efficiency of agricultural chemical fertilizer in China, the system design should focus on the long term, such as implementing the input efficiency control of chemical fertilizer, promoting the product quality upgrade of chemical fertilizer industry, and changing the traditional fertilization of farmers.