中国农业化肥投入效率空间差异及动态变迁
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南京财经大学粮食安全与战略研究中心

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F326.1

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Spatial difference and dynamic change of agricultural fertilizer input efficiency in China:Based on inter-provincial data from 1998 to 2017
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Nanjing university of Finance and Economics

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    摘要:

    本文使用面板数据随机前沿模型对1998~2017年中国农业化肥投入效率进行测算,并采用面板数据多状态模型对化肥投入效率的变迁趋势进行预测分析。研究发现:中国农业化肥投入的平均效率为0.70,存在较大的提升潜力,且效率分布具有中部高于东部、东部高于西部的区域特征,化肥投入效率与化肥使用强度之间不存在必然联系;在化肥投入效率损失的构成上,短期效率损失较低,持久效率损失较高,是中国农业化肥投入效率总体偏低的主要根源;尽管中国农业生产中普遍存在化肥投入不合理现象,造成很多的效率损失和投入浪费,但从效率变化的时间趋势及效率状态的转换概率上看,化肥投入效率并没有改善迹象,效率损失具有很强的黏性特征。因此,提升中国农业化肥投入效率的制度设计更应着眼于长远,如实施化肥投入效率管制、推进化肥行业产品质量升级、转变农户传统施肥等。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the panel data stochastic frontier model was used to calculate the input efficiency of fertilizers in China from 1998 to 2017, and the panel data multi-state model was used to predict and analyze the change trend of fertilizer input efficiency. It was found that the average fertilizer input efficiency in China was 0.70, which shares great potential for improvement. Moreover, the efficiency was higher in the central part than in the eastern part and higher in the eastern part than in the western part. There is no necessary relation between fertilizer input efficiency and fertilizer intensity. In terms of the composition of fertilizer input efficiency loss, the short-term efficiency loss is relatively low and the long-term efficiency loss is relatively high, which is the main cause of the overall low input efficiency of agricultural fertilizer in China. In spite of the irrational phenomenon of fertilizer input in agricultural production in China, which causes a lot of efficiency loss and input waste. The efficiency of fertilizer input shows no improvement in terms of the time trend of efficiency change and the conversion probability of efficiency state, and the efficiency loss is characterized by strong viscosity. Therefore, to improve the input efficiency of agricultural chemical fertilizer in China, the system design should focus on the long term, such as implementing the input efficiency control of chemical fertilizer, promoting the product quality upgrade of chemical fertilizer industry, and changing the traditional fertilization of farmers.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-22
  • 最后修改日期:2020-05-10
  • 录用日期:2020-09-15
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