草地贪夜蛾 Spodoptera frugiperda 作为新入侵我国的迁飞性害虫，危害性大。其春夏季向北迁飞、秋季向南回迁与大气环流、有利的天气过程密切相关。本研究基于天气预报平台，利用欧洲中心中期气象数值预报产品，初步建立了草地贪夜蛾迁飞的气象预报方法，可以较准确预报出迁飞路径、迁入时间（包括首见日及高峰日）、落区等。文章详细复盘了2021年对草地贪夜蛾迁飞的两次典型预报案例，分析了2021年草地贪夜蛾春季北迁至湖北（首见日）以及秋季南迁回湖北（高峰日）的典型天气过程以及迁飞层气象要素场，运用HYSPLIT轨迹模型模拟迁飞后向轨迹，并利用草地贪夜蛾田间监测数据、测报灯监测数据以及迁飞轨迹对预报结论进行了验证。结果表明，预报结论与草地贪夜蛾田间监测数据及测报灯监测数据以及轨迹模拟的情景吻合度较好。本研究首次将天气预报的数值预报模式应用于迁飞性害虫的预报工作，对于开展草地贪夜蛾的迁飞路径、迁入时间（包括首见日及高峰日）、落区预报工作，提前采取预防性措施具有较高应用价值。
The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, was a new migratory pest that invaded into China with a great hazard to some kinds of crops. The migrations toward north in spring and summer and toward south in autumn were related to background of atmospheric circulation and the favorable weather process. In this study, a meteorological forecasting model for migration of Spodoptera frugiperda was preliminarily build based on medium-term numerical forecast of ECMWF. This model can forecast the migration routes, immigration time including the first day of emergence and the day with a peak number and falling area very well. This study reviewed two typical forecasting cases of Spodoptera frugiperda’s migration in 2021 in detail. The typical weather processed and meteorological factor field about first migrating to Hubei province from north in spring and migrating back to Hubei province in autumn in 2021 were analyzed. These meteorological forecasting results have been verified by using HYSPLIT model to simulate the backward migration routes, monitoring data in field and from monitoring lamp and migration routes. The results showed that there is a good coincidence between the forecasting results and monitoring data in field, that from monitoring lamp and routes simulation of Spodoptera frugiperda. In this study the numerical forecast model of meteorological forecast is used to forecast the migration route of migratory pest in the first time. The conclusions drawn from this study can provide applied values for forecasting migration route, immigrating time, falling area and taking some prevention measures in advance.