基于MaxEnt模型的湖北烟区潜在适宜分布及其环境特征分析
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湖北省气象服务中心

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P49

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湖北省烤烟关键生育期气象指标推算与生态气候区划


Study on potential suitability distribution and environmental characteristics of tobacco area in Hubei province based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS
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    摘要:

    摘 要:本文利用2008-2020年中国气象局陆面数据同化系统CLDAS数据集和其它环境因子,基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS 10.2)利用湖北西部烟区实际种植点位模拟了烟区在湖北省的潜在适宜性分布,并评估了影响其分布的主导环境因子。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型对烟叶适宜性分布的模拟预测精度较高(AUC=0.854)。(2)海拔(650-1750m)、土壤类型(黄壤)、团棵期平均最低气温(8.9-15.0℃)、旺长期平均气温(16-22.9℃)、成熟期平均气温(18.8-25.6℃)是影响湖北烟叶分布的主导环境因子。(3)烟草的高适生区主要分布在恩施、十堰和襄阳南部及宜昌东南部,占湖北省总面积的18.2%,80%区域的气候特征为海拔700-1350米,团棵期平均最低气温11.2-14.5℃,旺长期平均气温19.2-22.8℃,成熟期平均气温22.0-25.4℃。(4)在所有环境因子中,海拔起决定性作用,温度则是影响烟草生长发育的重要气象因子。研究结果与湖北烟区实际空间分布基本相符,可为烟叶科学种植、布局提供理论参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Using the CLDAS data set of land data assimilation system of China Meteorological Administration from 2008 to 2020 and other environmental factors, the potential suitable distribution of tobacco area in Hubei province and dominant environmental factors affecting tobacco were simulated by using the actual planting sites basing on the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and Geographic Information System(ArcGIS 10.2). The results showed that: (1) MaxEnt model had a high accuracy in predicting the suitable distribution of tobacco area (AUC=0.854). (2) Altitude (650-1750 m), soil type (yellow soil), minimum temperature at the rosette stage (8.9-15.0℃), temperature at the prosperously growing stage (16-22.9℃), and temperature at the maturing stage (18.8-25.6℃) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of tobacco area in Hubei. (3) The highly suitable areas of tobacco are mainly distributed in Enshi, Shiyan, the southern of Xiangyang and the southeastern of Yichang, accounting for 18.2% of the total area of Hubei Province, with the mainly climate characteristics of altitude(700-1350m), the average minimum temperature(11.2-14.5℃), the average temperature (19.2-22.8℃), and the average temperature in the mature period (22.0-25.4℃). (4) Altitude plays a decisive role among all environmental factors, and temperature is an important meteorological factor affecting the growth and development of tobacco. The results are basically consistent with the actual spatial distribution of tobacco growing areas in Hubei Province, which can provide a theoretical reference for the scientific planting and distribution of tobacco.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-13
  • 最后修改日期:2022-09-15
  • 录用日期:2022-09-16
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