我国中药材价格指数预测研究
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国家社会科学基金项目(21BGL168); 农业农村部、财政部国家中药材产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-21);教育部人文社会科学研究项目 (20YJC790069)


Predicting price index of Chinese herbal medicines in China
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    摘要:

    以中药材天地网30种中药材价格指数为研究对象,使用 HP-LSTM-MLP混合预测模型对中药材单品种价格指数和综合价格指数进行预测,并与LSTM(long short term memory networks,长短期记忆网络)、RNN(recurrent neural network,循环神经网络)、GRU(gated recurrent unit,门控循环单元)等预测模型进行比较分析。研究结果表明,在RMSE和R2 score两个预测效果衡量指标中,HP-LSTM-MLP混合预测模型的RMSE为65.33,R2 score为0.99,皆优于其他3 种模型。采用HP-LSTM-MLP模型分别预测我国30种主要中药材综合价格指数以及单品种价格指数,结果显示,对中药材综合价格指数的预测结果平均相对误差为1.89%;对黄连、连翘和麦冬等单品种价格指数的预测结果的平均相对误差分别为3.36%、5.66%和3.22%,说明HP-LSTM-MLP模型泛化能力较好,对我国中药材价格指数预测具有一定的应用价值。

    Abstract:

    In recent years,the price of Chinese herbal medicines has fluctuated violently on many occasions,with high frequency and large amplitude,which has affected the healthy development of the Chinese medicinal materials industry. Predicting the market price and price index of Chinese herbal medicines is of great significance to the smooth operation and healthy development of the Chinese herbal medicines market. The price index of 30 Chinese herbal medicines from the website of Chinese herbal medicine and the HP-LSTM-MLP hybrid forecasting model was used to predict the price index and comprehensive price index of Chinese medicinal materials,and to compare and analyze with LSTM (Long-short-term memory network),RNN (recurrent neural network),GRU (gated recurrent unit) and other predictive models. Results showed that among the two predictive effect measures of RMSE and R2score,the HP-LSTM-MLP hybrid prediction model has an RMSE of 65.33 and R2score of 0.99,which are better than that of the other three models. Finally,the generalization ability of the HP-LSTM-MLP model was analyzed. The comprehensive price index and singlevariety price index of 30 main Chinese herbal medicines in China was predicted. The average relative error of the comprehensive price index of Chinese herbal medicines was 1.89%. Among the single varieties,the average relative errors of Coptis,Forsythia and Ophiopogon was 3.36%,5.66% and 3.22%,respectively. It is indicated that the model has good generalization ability and has certain application value for the predicting the price index of Chinese herbal medicines in China.

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李优柱,杨鸿宇,刘进思,付辉,陈顺杰.我国中药材价格指数预测研究[J].华中农业大学学报,2021,40(6):50-59

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-30
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