中国黑土区粮食生产效率时空格局演化及收敛性分析——以黑龙江省和吉林省为例
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1.中国农业科学院 农业信息研究所,北京 100081;2.中国农业科学院 研究生院,北京 100081

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F323.2

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国家现代农业产业技术体系专项(CARS-08);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2021-AII)。


Spatio-temporal Evolution and Convergence Analysis of Grain Production Efficiency in China’s Black Soil Region——A Case Study of Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces
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    摘要:

    中国黑土区是重要的粮食生产基地,粮食产量约占全国的1/4。基于黑土地保护利用政策背景,测算中国黑土区粮食生产效率,并采用核密度估计、莫兰指数、β绝对收敛模型和空间β绝对收敛模型等方法开展时空格局演化及收敛分析。研究发现:(1)在时间演进特征上,中国黑土区粮食生产效率提升且区域差异明显缩小;在空间演进特征上,空间正相关性显著,在地区分布上存在“高-高”集聚趋势,呈现“示范带动”“以点带面”的特征。(2)中国黑土区粮食生产效率存在显著β绝对收敛,粮食生产效率较低的地区对粮食生产效率较高的地区具有追赶趋势,逐步向较高粮食生产效率水平发展。(3)中国黑土区粮食生产效率存在显著空间β绝对收敛,中国黑土区地区间示范带动效应促使粮食生产效率呈现协同向好趋势。由此提出应加大黑土地保护利用示范县(市、区)培育力度,注重因地制宜、强化分类施策、循序渐进、梯次推进,以长期视角稳步推进黑土地资源有效利用、可持续利用。

    Abstract:

    China’s black soil region is a critical grain production base,contributing approximately one quarter of the nation’s total grain output.Against the policy backdrop of black soil conservation and utilization,this study measures the grain production efficiency in China’s black soil area and employs methods such as Kernel Density Estimation,Moran’s I,β absolute convergence model,and spatial β absolute convergence model to conduct spatio-temporal evolution and convergence analyses.The findings are as follows:1) Temporally,the grain production efficiency in China’s black soil region has improved,accompanied by a noticeable reduction in regional disparities.Spatially,there is a notable positive spatial correlation,exhibiting a “high-high” clustering trend in geographical distribution,reflecting characteristics such as “demonstration-driven” and “point-to-area” development.2) There is significant β absolute convergence in grain production efficiency in China’s black soil region,where areas with lower efficiency tend to catch up with more efficient regions,gradually approaching higher levels of grain production efficiency.3) Significant spatial β absolute convergence is also observed,suggesting that the demonstration-driven effect among regions has promoted a synergistic improvement in grain production efficiency. Accordingly,the study recommends strengthening the development of demonstration counties (cities or districts) for black soil protection and utilization,adhering to local conditions,enhancing category-specific and phased policies,and promoting a gradual,long-term approach to the effective and sustainable use of black soil resources.

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姜常宜,岳慧丽,张蕙杰.中国黑土区粮食生产效率时空格局演化及收敛性分析——以黑龙江省和吉林省为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2025(6):24-34

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-19
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