Research on arable land protection zoning-based regulation aimed at achieving the “dual security” of food and ecology can provide theoretical insights for the sustainable use of China’s farmland resources.This study forecasts farmland quantity using the shared socioeconomic pathways （SSPs） model according to overall characteristics of farmland ecosystem services and comprehensive evaluation index，and further proposes a spatial-temporal coupled strategy for zoning-based regulation over farmland in China.The results are as follows：1） From 2020 to 2035，farmland quantity in China shows a decreasing trend.Although in the short term，the required farmland area exceeds the food security warning threshold，in the long run，the current farmland scale can meet the needs of long-term food security；2） The ecosystem service levels and productivity level of farmland vary significantly across regions.High-value areas are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River plain-hilly region，the Huang-Huai-Hai region，the Northeast region，and the hilly and mountainous regions of Jiangnan，while other areas show relatively lower values；3） By overlaying scenarios assumptions at the temporal scale with land parcel advantages at the spatial scale，China’s farmland can be divided into six categories of regulatory zones，each facing distinct ecological degradation problems.Accordingly，it is proposed that differentiated zoning-based regulatory strategies for farmland protection should be implemented around the “dual security” goals of food and ecology，in order to realize the long-term sustainable use of farmland resources.