新型城镇化背景下老年流动人口群体细分及特征识别研究
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1.武汉工程大学 管理学院,湖北 武汉 430205;2.中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院,北京 100872

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C921

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国家社会科学基金项目“面向动态疫情的政府辟谣信息效果评价及提升路径研究”(21BTQ101)。


Research on Group Segmentation and Characteristic Identification of the Elderly Floating Population in the Context of New Urbanization
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    摘要:

    随着新型城镇化和人口老龄化进程的加深,老年流动群体已经成为我国流动人口的重要组成部分。对老年流动人口进行群体细分和特征识别,有助于政府制定相应的政策以为其提供更优质的社会保障,协助其更好地适应城镇环境。结合2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,运用LCA模型对老年流动人口进行群体细分与特征识别,并构建多分类Logistic回归模型找寻影响不同类型老年人口流动的主要动因,为更好满足其流动需求提供依据。研究发现,可将城镇化背景下的老年流动人口细分为3类:(1)“代际交换型”,多以农村高龄、健康状态不佳且家庭整体收入水平不高为主要特征,属于3类流动老年人口中最弱势群体,基于代际之间的互惠互利而发生的流动迁移。(2)“经济驱动型”,多以农村低龄、健康、家庭子女较多为主要特征,属于3类流动老年人口中就业创业意愿最强群体,绝大部分基于外出务工或经商的原因而流动。(3)“情感依赖型”,多以城镇受教育水平和家庭经济水平普遍较高为特征,属于3类流动老年人口中追求情感富足意愿最强的群体,基于养老考虑随子女一起流动。提出应从保障经济驱动型老年流动人口的就业参与、加强代际交换型流动老年人口的社会支持、完善情感依赖型老年流动人口的养老服务等方面提升其社会保障水平。

    Abstract:

    With the deepening of new urbanization and population aging,elderly migrants have become an important component of China’s floating population.Segmenting and identifying the characteristics of the elderly mobile population can help the government provide them with better social security and facilitate their adaptation to the new urban environment.Based on the data of the 2018 national mobile population dynamic monitoring survey,this paper uses the LCA model to segment and identify subgroups within the elderly migrant population.On this basis,the multiple Logistic regression model is further structured to analyze key driving factors behind the mobility of different types of elderly population to provide a basis for social security recommendations.According to the results,the elderly mobile population can be categorized into three types:1) Intergenerational exchange type.Characterized by being older,rural,in poor health,and with generally low household income levels, this group is the most vulnerable among the three,and their migration is largely based on mutual support between generations.2) Economically driven type.Typically younger,rural,in good health,and with multiple children,this group demonstrates the strongest willingness to work or start businesses and migrates primarily for employment or commercial opportunities.3)Emotionally dependent type.Mostly urban,with higher levels of education and household income,this group shows the strongest desire for emotional fulfillment and often migrates with their children for elder care and companionship.This paper suggests that the social security of the elderly mobile population should be enhanced by ensuring the employment participation for elderly mobile population of the “economically driven” group,strengthening social support for the intergenerational exchange type,and optimizing elder care services for the emotionally dependent group.

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陈娟,徐远远,王雨濛.新型城镇化背景下老年流动人口群体细分及特征识别研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2025(4):117-128

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-18
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