With economic development and the increasing proportion of migrant workers， the challenges of childcare for their children has become a significant societal concern. This paper employs both prospect theory and evolutionary game theory to analyze the complex interaction between the childcare choices of migrant workers and the strategies of private childcare institutions. The findings indicate that key factors such as government subsidies， childcare costs， and transition expenses significantly influence the strategic choices and evolutionary trends of both parties. Migrant workers’ childcare choices are not only affected by economic pressures but also by psychological factors such as mental accounting and loss aversion. When childcare costs are prohibitively high， migrant workers tend to forgo childcare services altogether， and skepticism regarding the quality of care further deters them from opting for inclusive childcare services. Meanwhile， private childcare institutions face challenges in balancing service quality， cost control， and profitability during their transition. Through simulation analysis based on a case study of Beijing， the research demonstrates that increasing government subsidies， reducing childcare costs， and decreasing transition costs can encourage migrant workers to embrace childcare services and motivate private institutions to adopt inclusive models. Therefore， this paper recommends that the government support private childcare institutions through various economic incentives and management strategies， improve the quality and accessibility of childcare services， and optimize the childcare system to promote social equity and harmonious development.