生猪产业规模化发展与碳排放:促进还是抑制?
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1.中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081;2.中国农业大学 经济管理学院,北京100083

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F326.3

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国家自然科学基金重点项目“基于可持续发展的畜牧业现代化路径与政策支持体系研究”(72033009);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2023-01)。*为通讯作者。


Scale Development of the Swine Industry and Carbon Emissions: Facilitator or Inhibitor?
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    摘要:

    在使用生命周期法测算2007-2020年省际生猪碳排放的基础上,系统考察了生猪产业规模化发展对生猪碳排放的影响与作用机制。结果表明:第一,生猪碳排放呈现出明显的空间溢出效应和聚集效应,即一个地区的生猪碳排放与周边地区密切相关;第二,生猪产业规模化发展对生猪碳排放呈现显著的“倒U型”关系,规模化发展对生猪碳排放的影响存在显著的门槛效应,当生猪产业规模化率保持在45.1%以上时,规模化发展可有效促进生猪产业碳减排;第三,小规模生猪养殖占比与生猪碳排放是显著的单调递增关系,而中规模和大规模生猪养殖占比与生猪碳排放之间表现显著的“倒U”型关系;第四,聚集效应和技术进步效应是生猪产业规模化发展影响生猪碳排放的主要作用途径。建议合理规划生猪产业的空间布局,发展适度规模养殖,发挥技术进步的推动作用,稳妥实现生猪产业碳减排与规模化发展的“双赢”目标。

    Abstract:

    Employing the life cycle methodology to compute provincial carbon emissions from swine spanning from 2007 to 2020, we methodically investigated the ramifications and mechanisms of scale development in the swine industry on carbon emissions. Our inquiry revealed that carbon emissions from swine manifest significant spillover effects and aggregation effects, signifying a close correlation between carbon emissions from swine within a given area and those in the neighboring regions. Additionally, the scale development of the swine industry demonstrates a pronounced “inverted U-shaped” association with carbon emissions from swine, denoting a substantial threshold impact of scale development on carbon emissions from swine. When the scale rate of the swine industry remains at 45.1% or above, scale development can effectively facilitate the reduction of carbon emissions within the industry. Moreover, there is a significant monotonically increasing relationship between the proportion of small-scale swine farming and carbon emissions from swine, whereas the proportion of medium and large-scale swine farming exhibit a notable inverted U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions from swine. Finally, aggregation effects and technological advancements serve as the primary conduits through which the scale development of the swine industry influences carbon emissions from swine. It is advisable to meticulously design the spatial arrangement of the swine industry, develop moderate-scale farming, capitalize on technological advancements to instigate change, and judiciously attain the mutually beneficial objective of mitigating carbon emissions while fostering scale development in the swine industry.

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梁耀文,王明利.生猪产业规模化发展与碳排放:促进还是抑制?[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2024(4):71-80

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-07-04
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