Policy regulation is conducive to the promotion of hog supply and price stability，as well as an important basis for the stable and orderly development of the hog market，and it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of policies change on the supply and demand of the hog market. Based on the basic data of hog market supply and demand and policy index，this study constructed the China hog market model to predict the future situation of hog market supply and demand，and simulated the impact of policies change on hog market supply and demand. The results of the study show that in 2025， the stock of breeding sows and hogs in China will reach 40.6 million and 445.05 million， the slaughter of hogs and pork production will increase to 708.08 million and 55.36 tons， and the slaughter rate and carcass weight of hogs will reach 159.10% and 78.18 kg/head. The total pork consumption of urban and rural residents will reach 31.97 million and 11.81 million tons respectively，while the price of live hog and pork will be maintained at RMB 23.11/kg and RMB 31.44/kg. Enhancement of hog market regulation policies can promote hog production and pork consumption，and suppress net pork imports and the rise of hog market prices，while weakening policies have the opposite effect on the hog market. In addition， The policy implementation has the more obvious effect on the hog production than on the hog market prices，while the urban and rural residents’ pork consumption and net pork imports are relatively less affected. In order to further strengthen the foundation for the stable and orderly development of China’s hog market，it is recommended to optimize the hog market regulation and control policy system，enhance the ability to deal with major animal epidemics，and scientifically guide urban and rural residents in pork consumption.