中国柑橘生产空间布局演化及驱动因素研究
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国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系专项(CARS-26-08B);中国工程科技发展战略云南研究院咨询研究项目“云南柑橘产业发展战略咨询研究”(2019YNZH2)。*为通讯作者。


Studies on the Spatio-temporal Variation and the Driving Forces of Citrus Production in China
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    摘要:

    精准把握中国柑橘生产格局、空间演化特征及其驱动因素是合理配置生产资源,科学制定发展政策以及推进柑橘产业供给侧结构性改革的基础。基于1978-2019年中国柑橘生产省级面板数据,运用生产重心模型和GIS技术分析柑橘生产空间布局变迁的特征、绘制柑橘生产重心变迁的轨迹,并构建空间杜宾模型实证分析中国柑橘生产布局变迁的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)中国柑橘生产重心具有往复式变化的特征,总体呈现出向西南方向移动的趋势,且资源禀赋的变化与生产重心的变化存在不匹配的情况;(2)中国柑橘生产存在着显著的空间自相关性和正向空间溢出效应,且大部分变量的间接效应要大于直接效应;(3)柑橘生产布局的变迁受到温度、受灾面积、比较收益、灌溉水平以及非农就业水平等多方面因素的影响,而且不同柑橘产区生产布局变迁的驱动因素也存在显著差异。由此提出应根据柑橘生产布局变化规律,优化品种结构,充分发挥资源禀赋和技术进步的驱动作用并有效利用影响因素的正向溢出效应,从而优化柑橘生产空间布局。

    Abstract:

    Accurate understanding the spatio-temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of citrus production in China is the basis for allocating production resources, formulating the development policies in a scientific way, and promoting the supply-side structural reform of the citrus industry. Based on the provincial panel data of China’s citrus production from 1978 to 2019, this study applies the barycenter theory and GIS technology to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of citrus production and depict the barycenter movement trajectory of citrus plantations and production in China. Moreover, we construct the spatial Durbin model to investigate the driving factors of the spatio-temporal variation of citrus production. Some key results show that: 1) the barycenter of citrus production has the trend of moving into the southwest and there is a low spatial matching degree between the changes of citrus production distribution and resource endowment; 2) significant spatial autocorrelation and positive spillover effects exist in China’s citrus production and the indirect effect is greater than the direct effect of most variables; 3) the spatio-temporal variation of citrus production are influenced by the factors of the temperature, disaster-stricken area, comparative benefit, agricultural irrigation and the non-agricultural employment opportunities. In addition, the influence factors are significantly different across different citrus production areas. Based on this, the spatial layout of citrus production should be optimized by optimizing the variety structure, giving full play to the driving role of resource endowment and technological progress and effectively exploiting the positive spillover effects of the influencing factors, so as to optimize the spatial layout of citrus production.

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黄伟华,祁春节.中国柑橘生产空间布局演化及驱动因素研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2022(4):90-103

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-14
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