Abstract:In recent years,the extraordinary fluctuations of pork price in China exert adverse effects on people’s livelihood and the development of related industries.Thus,exploring the influencing factors of pork price and obtaining the accurate forecasts of the pork price are of great practical significance.In view of the time-varying characteristics of pork price’s influencing factors,this paper puts forward an influencing factors analysis and pork price forecasting framework based on dynamic model averaging theory.By examining eleven influencing factors derived from the supply of pork,demand of pork,economic environment of China,and international markets,this paper investigates the timevarying characteristics of influencing factors,and then constructs the pork price forecasting model by introducing the dynamic model averaging.Furthermore,we compare the ability of the proposed model with benchmarks used to forecast the pork price by accuracy measures and Diebold-Mariano test.The empirical results indicate that the influencing factors of pork price exhibit significant time-varying characteristics,with significant differences between factors.Since 2009,the decision mechanism and influencing factors of pork price have become more complicated and diverse.Moreover,the pork price forecasting model based on dynamic model averaging achieves more accurate forecasts than benchmarks.Government need to take full account of the impact of supply,demand,China’s economic environment and international trade on pork prices when formulating pig market regulation and control policies,and can use accurate pork price forecast information to enhance their initiative,foresight and scientificity.