中澳自贸区对我国农产品加工业的影响
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农业农村部“国家现代肉羊产业技术体系”(CARS-38)。


Assessing the Sino-Australia FTA’s Impact on China’s Agricultural Products Processing Sectors
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    摘要:

    澳大利亚农产品国际竞争力较强,中澳自贸区的成立将对中国农产品加工业发展产生深远影响。基于改进的标准GTAP模型,利用中澳自贸区《关税减让表》设计了详细的政策情景,并从产业链角度区分了农业原料和农产品加工行业,模拟分析了自贸区建立后1年、3年、5年的关税削减对我国宏观经济和农产品加工业的影响。研究发现:自贸区的建立有益于中国整体经济发展,宏观层面的消费、投资、贸易均有所增长;大部分农产品加工业将会受益,而大多数农业原料行业将会受损;尤其是关税削减可能导致大量澳大利亚农产品及加工制品涌入中国,中国的羊毛、乳制品和牲畜等产品的生产将会受到冲击。因此,中国应该大力推进产业升级,完善扶持政策,提升国内农产品加工业的竞争力。

    Abstract:

    Agricultural products from Australia are relatively competitive in international market. The Sino-Australia FTA,which has newly been taken into effect,will deeply affect China’s agricultural products processing sectors. Modifying the standard GTAP model and designing a detailed policy background based on the latest trade data and the official tariff schedule,this paper distinguished the sector of agricultural raw materials and the sector of agricultural products processing from the perspective of industray chain,to support the simulations of how this FTA would influence China in 1 year,3 years and 5 years respectively. The research found that the FTA would benefit China from the macroeconomic perspective,resulting the development of consumption,investment and trade. Most agricultural products processing sectors would benefit while most raw agricultural sectors would lose. Large amount of processed agricultural products would flood in from Australia due to the tarrif cut,which may strike the production and trade in sectors like wool,dairy products and livestock in China. Therefore,China should promote the structural upgrading,release sectoral supporting policies to improve the competitiveness of domestic agricultural processing sectors.

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曹 慧,吕郢康,林 海.中澳自贸区对我国农产品加工业的影响[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2020(3):53-62

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-05-19
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