20世纪90年代以来不同时段经济增长与土地违法关系再审视——基于省级面板数据的格兰杰因果检验
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国家自然科学基金项目“城镇用地合理扩张:动力机制及情景模拟”(41101546);江苏省社会科学基金项目“农村集体建设用地流转收益分配机制研究——以江苏省苏南地区为例”(14GLC005);江苏师范大学研究生创新项目“农村集体建设用地流转主体意愿及收益分享机制研究——以苏州市为例”(2015YYB037);江苏省自然科学基金“土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调研究:基于财政分权视角”(BK20131008)。


Further Study on Relationship between Economic Growth and Illegal Land Use at Different Periods since 1990——The Granger Causation Study Based on Provincial Panel Data of China
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    摘要:

    基于中国大陆省级面板数据,运用面板数据Granger因果检验方法,对20世纪90年代以来不同时段全国及东、中、西部、经济增长和土地违法间的关系进行比较分析。研究显示:在全国层面,1990-1996年,经济增长与土地违法间无显著因果关系;1999-2006年,滞后1期经济增长率和土地违法表现为双向因果关系,而滞后2期经济增长率是土地违法的单向格兰杰原因;2006-2013年,滞后1期经济增长是土地违法的单向格兰杰原因,而滞后2期土地违法是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。不同制度演进时期,因经济发展水平及土地违法治理政策偏好的差异,经济增长和土地违法间的因果关系存在时段及区域差异:1990-1996年东部经济增长率是土地违法的格兰杰原因,而中部经济增长与土地违法互为因果,西部则无显著因果关系;1999-2006年东部土地违法是经济增长的格兰杰原因,而中部经济增速的变化率是土地违法的格兰杰原因,西部经济增长率与土地违法呈双向因果关系;2006-2013年仅中部土地违法是经济增长率的格兰杰原因。研究表明,不同经济发展阶段与目标可能导致不同程度的潜在土地违法行为,通过提高土地利用效率、完善法律制度及监管机制有助于缓解或遏制土地违法行为;不同地区应在把握经济增长与土地违法因果关系的基础上,根据经济发展需要制定差别化土地违法治理对策。

    Abstract:

    Based on the provincial panel data of mainland China, this paper uses the method of granger causality test for panel data to analyze the relationship between economic growth and illegal land use in the whole country and three regions (i.e., eastern, central and western region) of China during different periods since 1990s so as to provide scientific evidence for the governance of illegal land use. The result shows that firstly, at the national level, there is no significant causal relationship between economic growth and illegal land use from 1990 to 1996. However, from 1999 to 2006, mutual causality exists between economic growth rate and illegal land use at the first delaying period while economic growth rate is the cause of illegal land use at the second delaying period. From 2006 to 2013, economic growth is the granger cause of illegal land use at the first delaying period, while illegal land use is the granger cause of economic growth at the second delaying period. Secondly, in different periods of institution evolution, due to the differences in economic development and the preference of management policies on illegal land use, different causal relationships between economic growth and illegal land use exist in different regions and different periods. From 1990 to 1996, economic growth rate shows a significant cause of illegal land use in eastern China; in central China, a mutual causality exists between economic growth and illegal land use, while there is no significant causal relationship between that of western China. In the period of 19992006, illegal land use shows a significant cause of economic growth in eastern China, while in central China, the change rate of economic growth speed is a granger cause of illegal land use, and a mutual causality exists between economic growth rate and illegal land use in western China. From 2006 to 2013, mutual causality between economic growth rate and illegal land use only exists in western China. The study shows that different periods of economic development and economic goals may lead to different degrees of potential illegal land use. We can mitigate and curb illegal land use by improving land use efficiency, perfecting the legal system and regulatory mechanisms. Differentiated countermeasures should be taken to control illegal land use based on the relationship between economic growth and illegal land use in different regions.

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镇风华,舒帮荣,李永乐,陈利洪.20世纪90年代以来不同时段经济增长与土地违法关系再审视——基于省级面板数据的格兰杰因果检验[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016(5):116-124

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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-07-28
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