我国牛羊肉价格波动非线性关系研究
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目“我国肉牛产业发展规律及财政扶持政策研究”(71173220);国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-35-22);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01)。


Nonlinear Relationship between Beef and Mutton Price in China
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    我国牛羊肉价格高位运行的现状长期存在,且走势基本一致,研究两者之间的内在关系具有重要意义。基于1995—2014年牛羊肉价格季度数据,利用LSTR模型对两者之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:牛羊肉价格之间的相互关系通过“消费效应”和“生产效应”传达,其具有非线性特征,牛羊肉价格波动幅度临界值分别为0.061 2和 0.032 5,当价格波幅超过临界值时,价格影响呈现出非线性特征;在线性制度下,牛肉价格波动对羊肉价格的影响更大,而在非线性制度下则相反,这与VAR模型研究结果不同;牛羊肉价格之间的相互关系可大致划分为两个阶段,1996—2006年底主要表现为线性特征,2007年之后更多地表现为非线性特征。建议根据牛羊肉价格波动的不同临界值和制度区间,把握两者相互影响程度,出台覆盖两个品种的调控措施。

    Abstract:

    The beef and mutton price have stayed in a high level for a long time,which has showed the same trend.Studying the inner change rule between them is of great significance.Based on the quarterly data of beef and mutton price from 1995 to 2014,this paper uses LSTR model to empirically analyze their relationships.The results showed that: firstly,beef and mutton price are interacted with each other by consumption effect and production effect with nonlinear characteristics.In particular,the amplitude threshold value of beef and mutton price were 0.061 2 and 0.032 5 respectively and when the price moved above the threshold value,the price interaction would show nonlinear characteristics.Secondly,beef price had a greater influence on mutton price under the linear system and mutton price had a greater influence on beef price under the nonlinear system,which was different with results of VAR model.Thirdly,two stages should be divided according to the interaction between beef and mutton price,which was the first stage of linear characteristic from 1996 to the end of 2006,and the second stage of nonlinear characteristics since 2007.According to the threshold values and different interaction systems between the beef and mutton price, controlling measures covering the two markets should be taken.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

石自忠,王明利.我国牛羊肉价格波动非线性关系研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(6):19-28

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2015-10-27
  • 出版日期: