城市化与城市建设用地关系实证——基于中国大陆地区1982-2011年时序数据
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教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“城市建设用地扩张与经济增长质量互动机理研究”(12YJC790281);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目“城市建设用地扩张与经济增长质量互动机理:东北老工业基地的实证研究”(N110314002);国家社会科学基金项目“城乡建设用地增减挂钩中农民土地收益分配机制研究”(11CJY050)。


An Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Urbanization and Urban Construction Land——Based on Time Series Data from 1982 to 2011 in Mainland China
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    摘要:

    采用中国大陆地区1982-2011年数据,选择时间序列分析方法对城市化与城市建设用地之间关系进行了实证检验。结果表明:城市化与城市建设用地间存在协整关系,城市化水平每提高1%,城市用地扩张1.79%,城市化对城市用地扩张的拉动作用较大;短期内城市建设用地偏离均衡时,下期将会有36.80%被调整到均衡状态,而当城市化发生偏离时,系统内不具备此力量;短期内城市化与城市用地扩张互为因果关系,长期内仅存在从城市化到城市用地扩张的Granger原因。提出应实施节地型城市化战略;严格控制中小城市、县城及建制镇人均建设用地规模;完善配套措施,解决半城市化问题,积极稳妥地推进城乡建设用地增减挂钩;不同的主体功能区实施差别化的城市用地扩张管控政策;改革对地方官员考核机制,降低地方政府对土地财政的依赖。

    Abstract:

    The purpose of this study is to discuss the relationship between urbanization and urban land.Time serial analysis methods such as unit root test,co-integration test,error correction model,and Granger causality test were used to analyze the data of china from 1982 to 2011.The result shows that there was equilibrium between urbanization and urban land,and urbanization played a large role in urban land expansion because urban land would be sprawled by 1.79 percent if urbanization rate increased by 1 percent.Error correction model proved that 36.8 percent of deviation would be adjusted to equilibrium when urban land deviation from equilibrium happened,but urbanization couldn’t be adjusted little to the equilibrium.Granger causality test showed that there existed Granger causality between urbanization and urban land mutually in short term,but there only existed Granger cause from urbanization to urban land expansion in long time.Firstly,strategy of land-saved-based urbanization should be implemented,and land per capita should be strictly controlled in medium and small cities,counties and towns.Secondly,the supporting measures should be perfected to actively solve the peri-urbanization and steadily promote urban land acquisitions for city development.Thirdly,differential policies for controlling urban land expansion should be implemented in principle function regions.Finally,local official assessment mechanism should be reformed to crack the dependence on land finance of local governments.

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赵可,张雄,张炳信.城市化与城市建设用地关系实证——基于中国大陆地区1982-2011年时序数据[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(2):107-113

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