Abstract:The purpose of this study is to explore the short-term fluctuation trend of rice price in China’s rice market so as to stabilize farmer’s market prediction and improve farmer’s enthusiasm on production.Based on domestic and international price fluctuation of rice market,this paper uses TARCH model to analyze the periodic charateristics of China’s rice market price based on the domestic price data from 2006 to 2012.The result shows that rice market price has significant ARCH effect,and its fluctuation has clustered,asymmetric,memorial and sustainable features.Therefore,this paper proposes several policy suggestions:the government and related policy makers should make use of the characteristics of price fluctuation of rice market to predict next-term price of rice market.And the upward trend of rice market price should be monitored closely,and measures should be taken to stabilize the rice price fluctuation.